LANSING, Mich. — With only 12 days left before Election Day, it appears the race for Michigan Governor may finally be tightening up. The latest Rossman Group and Team TelCom poll shows Democrat Virg Bernero has closed to within 14 points of Republican gubernatorial challenger Rick Snyder.
Snyder maintains a 50 to 36 percent lead over Bernero, but the poll results are the closest they have been since the tracking polls began eight weeks ago.
“It appears Bernero is picking up steam but it may be too little too late,” said Kelly Rossman-McKinney, CEO and founder of The Rossman Group. “At this point, it looks like it would take one hell of an ‘October surprise’ to change the outcome of these races.”
Snyder continues to lead by more than 20 points among Independents, and has strong leads among most age groups. Bernero seems to have made gains among men, only trailing by 7 points, and actually leads in the Thumb area (50 percent to 35 percent), and stays within 7 points in the metro-Detroit area.
The automated poll, conducted October 18, surveyed 400 likely voters on several statewide races and has a margin of error of +/- 5.6 percent. The results of the survey are below and charts showing the progress over the last several weeks follow the release:
Rick Snyder (R) – 50 percent
Virg Bernero (D) – 36 percent
Undecided – 15 percent
Secretary of State
Ruth Johnson (R)– 43 percent
Jocelyn Benson (D) – 32 percent
Undecided – 26 percent
Bill Schuette (R) – 45 percent
David Leyton (D) – 32 percent
Undecided – 24 percent
Although Democrat Secretary of State candidate Jocelyn Benson cut the gap to within single digits of her Republican challenger, Ruth Johnson, in last week’s poll, she does not appear to be closing that margin this week. Republican Attorney General candidate Bill Schuette continues to lead Democrat David Leyton in all demographic categories, except with respondents from the Thumb and those ages 18-29.
“There are still plenty of undecided voters out there, but Democrats continue to have an uphill battle,” said Rossman-McKinney. “It will be interesting to see if former President Bill Clinton’s scheduled appearance in the state on Sunday will be enough give the Dems a boost.”
Contact: Josh Hovey, 517-487-9320 (office), 517-712-5829 (cell) Jhovey@rossmangroup.com, Kelly Rossman-McKinney, 517-487-9320 (office), 517-749-0529 (cell) firstname.lastname@example.org
* Methodology: This Rossman Group/Team TelCom Weekly Survey was an automated statewide telephone poll of 400 likely voters across the state. The survey was conducted on Oct. 11, 2010. Participation was stratified based on past voter behavior and census data. A screen was employed to include only those participants who said they would definitely vote, either at the polls or by absentee ballot, in the November 2010 General Election. The margin of error is plus/minus 5.6 percent. All numbers are rounded and may exceed 100%. Attribution: For attribution purposes, please identify both organizations that partnered in the poll: The Rossman Group and Team TelCom.