Lansing, Michigan – Democratic Speaker of the House Andy Dillon and Republican Congressman Pete Hoekstra would be the strongest gubernatorial candidates for their respective parties in the 2010 November election, according to the Lobby Guide Litmus Test, a survey of State Capitol insiders.

Hoekstra far outpaced his Republican rivals with 54 percent of the vote, trailed by Ann Arbor businessman and self-proclaimed nerd Rick Snyder (17 percent), and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard at 17 percent. Surprisingly, only 10 percent thought Attorney General Mike Cox would be the GOP’s strongest candidate. State Senator Tom George (R-Kalamazoo) received two percent of the vote. Among Republicans only, Hoekstra was in first with 56 percent, followed by Bouchard (22 percent), Cox (12 percent), Snyder (9 percent) and George (2 percent).

The choice was much closer among the Democratic gubernatorial candidates. Dillon was favored as the strongest Democratic candidate with 55 percent of the vote, followed Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero at 43 percent. State Senator Alma Wheeler Smith, who formally dropped out of the race, was way behind at two percent. However, among those Democrats surveyed, 57 percent favored Bernero as the strongest General Election candidate with Dillon at 40 percent.

“That Capitol Insiders see Dillon and Hoekstra as the strongest candidates is not surprising,” said The Rossman Group founder and CEO Kelly Rossman-McKinney, APR. “What is surprising is that Mike Cox – nearly eight years as Michigan’s incumbent Attorney General and twice elected statewide – is not believed to be as strong a candidate as Rick Snyder, a political newbie, and Mike Bouchard, who lost his only previous statewide campaign.”

“Clearly the Democrats have a horse-race on their hands,” said Chuck Perricone, CEO of The Perricone Group and former GOP Speaker of the House. “A vast majority of Republicans and Independents see Speaker Dillon as the most formidable of the Democrat candidates, but Democrats themselves see Mayor Bernero as the candidate with the best chance of winning in November.”

The Lobby Guide Litmus Test is a monthly online survey of Capitol Insiders performed by The Rossman Group, The Perricone Group and Denno Noor Research. The survey included all individuals listed in The Rossman Group’s Lobby Guide – a directory of lobbyists, association leadership, Capitol Press Corps and other Lansing insiders.

These same Capitol Insiders control a great deal of the money that funds Michigan campaigns (legislative races in particular) and there’s bad news for candidates: because of the economy they are giving less this year. Almost half of those surveyed, 48 percent, said they will give less to candidates than they have previously; 44 percent said they will give the same amount this year; and only eight percent said they will give more money to candidates in 2010.

Looking at other survey questions, Republicans (76 percent) and Democrats (a whopping 97 percent!) agreed that the Democratic candidates for Attorney General (Genesee County Prosecutor David Leyton), and Secretary of State (Wayne State University Professor Jocelyn Benson) will benefit from the Party’s early endorsement convention held last month. Overall, 83 percent of those surveyed said the early convention will help the Democratic nominees, while only 16 percent said it would hurt the candidates.

On the federal health care reform package recently passed by Congress, 76 percent of those surveyed said it would hurt the Democrats in the November elections, while 24 percent said it would help. Predictably, these numbers are largely driven by partisanship – 93 percent of Republicans and 81 percent of independents indicated health care reform would hurt the Democrats, while 67 percent of Democrats thought health care reform will help and only 33 percent predicted it would hurt.

“With potentially less money available for legislative races in 2010, those candidates entering the election with higher name awareness will have a distinct advantage,” said Denno Noor Research President Dennis Denno. “Meanwhile, in overwhelming numbers Republicans and Independents disagree with Democrats as to who will benefit from the health care debate. We’d expect to see Republicans and Democrats split on this – but the huge number of Independents who believe health care will hurt Democrats has to be disconcerting to Party leaders.”

Methodology
The Lobby Guide Litmus Test is an online survey conducted by The Rossman Group, The Perricone Group and Denno Noor Research of Rossman’s Lobby Guide – a listing of lobbyists, association leaders and the media. The survey was conducted from 8:00 a.m. on Thursday, May 6 to 5:00 p.m. on Friday, May 7, 2010. All numbers are rounded and may exceed 100 percent.

For attribution purposes, please recognize all three Lobby Guide Litmus Test partner organizations:

• The Rossman Group
• The Perricone Group
• Denno Noor Research

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Contact: Kelly Rossman-McKinney 517-749-0529 Dennis Denno 517-402-2453 Chuck Perricone 269 758-3480 Mark Pischea 517-487-9320